Exam PContinuousFree to read

Exponential distribution

The waiting time until the next event in a Poisson process; a memoryless lifetime.

Parameters and support

λ\lambda
rate - events per unit time - λ>0\lambda > 0
Support
x≥0x \ge 0

The formulas

f(x)
f(x)=λe−λxf(x) = \lambda e^{-\lambda x}
F(x)
F(x)=1−e−λxF(x) = 1 - e^{-\lambda x}

The survival function S(x) = e^(−λx) is the form worth memorising - most questions ask for a tail.

Mean
E[X]=1λE[X] = \dfrac{1}{\lambda}
Variance
Var⁡(X)=1λ2\operatorname{Var}(X) = \dfrac{1}{\lambda^{2}}
MGF
M(t)=λλ−t,t<λM(t) = \dfrac{\lambda}{\lambda - t}, \quad t < \lambda
Memory hook. Standard deviation equals the mean. Memorylessness means P(X > s + t | X > s) = P(X > t): a used component is as good as new.

Where the moments come from

  1. S(x)=P(X>x)=e−λxS(x) = P(X > x) = e^{-\lambda x}, so F(x)=1−e−λxF(x) = 1 - e^{-\lambda x} and f(x)=λe−λxf(x) = \lambda e^{-\lambda x}.
  2. E[X]=∫0∞S(x) dx=∫0∞e−λx dx=1λE[X] = \int_0^\infty S(x)\,dx = \int_0^\infty e^{-\lambda x}\,dx = \frac{1}{\lambda}.
  3. E[X2]=∫0∞2x S(x) dx=2λ2E[X^2] = \int_0^\infty 2x\,S(x)\,dx = \frac{2}{\lambda^2}, so Var⁡(X)=2λ2−1λ2=1λ2\operatorname{Var}(X) = \frac{2}{\lambda^2} - \frac{1}{\lambda^2} = \frac{1}{\lambda^2}.
  4. Memorylessness follows straight from e−λ(s+t)=e−λse−λte^{-\lambda(s+t)} = e^{-\lambda s}e^{-\lambda t}.
  5. The exponential is Gamma(α=1\alpha = 1, λ\lambda); a sum of nn independent Exponential(λ\lambda) is Gamma(nn, λ\lambda).

Worked example

A machine's time to failure is exponential with mean 5 years. Given it has survived 3 years, find the probability it survives at least 5 more.

  1. Mean 5 means λ=1/5=0.2\lambda = 1/5 = 0.2.
  2. By memorylessness the 3 years already survived are irrelevant: P(X>8∣X>3)=P(X>5)P(X > 8 \mid X > 3) = P(X > 5).
  3. P(X>5)=e−0.2×5=e−1P(X > 5) = e^{-0.2 \times 5} = e^{-1}.
  4. e−1=0.3679e^{-1} = 0.3679.

Answer: 0.3679

The mean, variance, CDF and moment generating function above are re-derived numerically from this distribution’s own density on every test run - summed over the support for a discrete distribution, integrated by quadrature for a continuous one - and compared with the closed forms printed here. A typo on this page fails that test run.

Traps

  • Using λ where the mean θ = 1/λ belongs. Read whether the question gives a RATE or a MEAN.
  • Doing the conditional probability the long way when memorylessness collapses it in one line.
  • Confusing the exponential (a waiting time) with the Poisson (a count).

Related

Drill this: the Exam P question bank has original questions on this distribution, and the recall trainer builds its prompts from exactly the formulas above.